A pumping unit works near the Yamashneft Oil and Gas Company Yamashinskoye field in Almediyevsk, Tatarstan, Russia. Although the “rebellion” of the Russian private military group Wagner has been quelled and the Russian political situation has been restored to stability, the Wagner incident has intensified the concerns of the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports and triggered fluctuations in global crude oil prices. According to Reuters reported on June 26, the major international crude oil trading markets that opened for the first time after the Wagner incident reacted to the incident. Crude oil futures rose slightly in a volatile session.
Reported that the world’s three major crude oil futures prices rose on the 26th. North Sea Brent and New York West Texas crude futures (WTI) were both up about 0.4 per cent, while Dubai crude futures (ICE) rose as much as 1.3 per cent in early trade. Brent crude rose 17 cents (about 1.23 yuan) a barrel to $74.02 (about 534 yuan) as of 13:00 Beijing time on the 26th, New York crude oil rose 13 cents to $69.29, while Dubai crude oil rose 6 cents to $73.36.
According to the analysis, due to the further interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve and the global economic recovery is less than expected, the market has been very worried about weak oil demand, and the crude oil index fell about 3.6% last week. In this context, the current contrarian increase in crude oil prices shows that the market is extremely worried about the stability of Russian oil supplies. The Wagner affair has raised questions about the Russian government’s ability to manage the situation and worries about possible disruptions to Russian oil supplies.
Helima Croft, oil futures analyst at RBC Capital, said the oil market is concerned that Putin will declare martial law across Russia, which will affect the normal operation of the country’s major ports and energy facilities, and millions of barrels of crude exports could be halted. She added: “We understand that the White House was in active contact yesterday with major domestic and international oil producers to develop contingency plans to keep the market well supplied in the near term should the crisis affect Russian crude production.” However, as Russia’s oil exports are still functioning normally for the time being, the physical fundamentals of crude oil have not changed, and prices are not expected to surge significantly.