At 24:00 on October 10, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened. According to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, according to the current oil product price formation mechanism, from 24 o ‘clock on October 10, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 85 yuan and 80 yuan per ton, respectively.
Since the 13th round of price adjustment on June 28, domestic oil prices have risen six times and run aground once. The price adjustment is the first downward adjustment in the second half of the year, and the overall price adjustment of refined oil products throughout the year showed a pattern of “ten rises and seven falls and three strandings”. After the ups and downs, the gasoline price rose by 970 yuan/ton during the year, and the diesel price rose by 935 yuan/ton.
The price adjustment is converted into a liter price, 92# gasoline per liter down 0.07 yuan, 0# diesel per liter down 0.07 yuan. To calculate the average private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, after the price adjustment, a full tank of oil will spend about 3.5 yuan less. According to the estimates of Xu Wenwen, a product analyst of Longzhong Information, the average cost per 100 kilometers of vehicles with fuel consumption of 7L to 8L in the urban area is reduced by about 0.5 yuan; For large logistics transport vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost per 100 kilometers is reduced by about 2.8 yuan.
The National Development and Reform Commission Price monitoring Center monitoring shows that the current round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (September 20 to October 9), international oil prices have fluctuated sharply. On average, London Brent and New York WTI oil prices are slightly lower than the previous cycle by 0.72%.
During the price adjustment cycle, falling demand and geopolitical conflicts have led to sharp fluctuations in international oil prices. Affected by related factors, oil prices fell significantly, and oil prices fell 5% on October 4. Since then, the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the market has raised concerns about oil supply in the Middle East, and international oil prices have risen more than 4%. On average, the price of Brent in London and WTI in New York fell slightly by 0.94% and 0.51% compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.
“In this pricing cycle, international crude oil prices as a whole show a trend of falling after rising, and the decline is more obvious.” Although the end of the pricing cycle, the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict triggered supply concerns, which boosted oil prices again, the overall trend of crude oil prices in the current pricing cycle is still downward.” Wang Yanting, senior analyst of refined oil products, said.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission expects that in the short term, the development of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict situation will be the main factor affecting the operation of oil prices. The current conflict has not yet had a substantial impact on oil production and transportation in the Middle East, but the development of the situation is still uncertain, and the possibility of a sudden rise in geopolitical risks and deterioration of the situation cannot be ruled out, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to the impact on oil prices.
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on October 24. Longzhong Information refined oil analyst Li Yan believes that at the current level of international crude oil prices, the next round of refined oil prices will show a downward trend. At present, the international crude oil prices show a high and volatile trend, the signs of long and short game have increased, and the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is expected to be large.